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| Prospect of energy storage industry in 2023: portable+household energy storage+e |
| Release time:2022-12-07 14:20:44| Viewed： |
Prospect of energy storage industry in 2023: portable+household energy storage+energy storage power station
Portable energy storage
Portable energy storage Portable energy storage can be regarded as a "large outdoor charging treasure". This type of product is a kind of built-in lithium ion battery with high energy density, which can provide a power supply system with stable AC/DC voltage output. The charging capacity is usually 0.2-2kWh, and it has a higher output power of 100-2200W. It is equipped with AC, DC, Type-C, USB, PD and other interfaces, and is widely used in outdoor travel, emergency disaster preparedness and other scenarios.
Application scenario of portable energy storage equipment
The application scenario of portable energy storage equipment has been continuously expanded as the product has been accepted by the market. Generally, 1 kilowatt hour is taken as the boundary. Below 1 kilowatt hour, there is a consumer demand, while above 1 kilowatt hour, there is a rigid demand for standby power.
(1) Less than 1 kilowatt hour: generally, it is used to supply power to electronic equipment outside, that is, outdoor entertainment needs, such as mobile phones, computers, drones, SLRs
(2) More than 1 kilowatt hour (kWh): the users of large capacity products are mainly the household backup power, professional level users, and outdoor users with high requirements for electrical appliances (3-15 kWh), or they are used for off grid needs such as recreational vehicles, yachts, off grid cabins, etc. This scenario has higher demand for electricity and power (about 15 kWh); Or as a household energy storage module.
Portable household energy storage system
The development trend of portable energy storage towards large capacity is determined, and major manufacturers have increased investment. According to the statistics of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the current market is dominated by 100-500Wh products, accounting for about 50%, but their share is shrinking.
On the contrary, the market share of products with a capacity of 500-1000Wh will increase, reaching 40% in 2021. The market share of products with a capacity of more than 1000Wh will be only 10%, but the share will also increase. In the future, as the cost of the cell decreases, portable energy storage products with large capacity will gradually become the mainstream.
Distribution of electric quantity range (Wh) of portable energy storage products of each company
Market share distribution of each capacity (%)
In August 2022, Huabao Xinneng will launch the family energy storage brand Geneva in San Francisco, the United States, which includes two flagship products Geneva HomePowerPro01/02. It has a huge amount of power reserves. One charge can enable users to power up basic equipment for up to a week, and power up refrigerators for up to 30 hours. For CPAP respirators that improve sleep quality, they can power up for 3-7 days, laptop computers can be fully charged for 12-16 times, and mobile phones can be charged for 150-200 times. The charging capacity of single product is 1.2/2.4 kwh, and multiple modules can be connected in parallel to meet the demand for large power consumption. In July 2022, Zhenghao EcoFlow will release a 48V full scene power supply system, providing a reliable off grid power supply scheme for users such as travel, long-distance cross-country, and non grid houses. It realizes the mode of intelligent control five in one charging and inversion machine, integrates the five core functional modules, and gives consideration to the characteristics of high performance, space saving, simplicity, beauty, plug and play, safety and friendliness. The unit charge is 2kwh or 5kwh, and the maximum capacity can be expanded to 15kwh.
Huabao Xinneng Geneva HomePowerPro product
Zhenghao Technology 48V full scene power supply system According to the number of households, outdoor activity penetration rate and portable energy storage penetration rate in each country, the market space of portable energy storage in outdoor scenarios in each country can be predicted. Considering the population growth and the increase of outdoor activity penetration rate in the Chinese and American markets, portable energy storage products are expected to achieve a rapid demand growth under the continuous penetration of outdoor activities; The Japanese market considers the increase of demand for emergency preparedness.
According to this calculation, it is estimated that 24.14 million new portable energy storage units will be shipped in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 49% from 21 to 25; The new installed capacity can reach about 16.9Gwh, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 57%; The market space reached 55.1 billion yuan, with an average compound annual growth rate of about 49%.
Household energy storage
Review of overseas household energy storage: 2022: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies energy anxiety, and household energy storage demand grows rapidly. Since 2021, the European market has been affected by the rise in energy prices. The price of residential electricity has risen rapidly. The economy of energy storage is reflected and the market is hot. Taking Germany as an example, 145000 sets of household PV will be added in 2021, with an installed capacity of 1.27GWh,+49% year-on-year.
Future outlook: Household energy storage: sense of crisis&demand growth stimulated by economy the trend of global energy transformation, and household energy self use is the main way. The excessive dependence on fossil energy in the energy structure has caused the European energy crisis. In order to maintain national security, Europe has accelerated the process of energy transformation. The best way is to realize the substitution of energy supply through renewable energy power generation.
From the perspective of power grid stability, the power grid pressure caused by large quantities of new energy grid connection is due to the fact that the government guides power generation/users to configure energy storage through subsidies and other policies. The underlying logic of European countries' subsidies for distributed photovoltaic+energy storage is to reduce the power grid distribution pressure through distributed systems. Therefore, the European household photovoltaic energy storage market will maintain a high growth.
Proportion of European household photovoltaic installed capacity and total installed capacity (GW)
According to the number of households, the distributed photovoltaic installed capacity is calculated. Considering the penetration rate of household energy storage, the number of installed household energy storage is obtained. Assuming that the average installed capacity of each household can obtain the installed capacity of household energy storage globally and in each market. It is estimated that the global household energy storage capacity will reach 57.66GWh in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 91% from 2021-2025. Among them, the European market is the largest, with 41.09GWh of new installed capacity in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 112%; In 2025, the US market will increase the installed capacity by 7.90 GWh, with a compound growth rate of 71%.
Calculation of installed capacity of household energy storage (GWh)
Assuming that every household is installed with energy storage system, the ceiling of household energy storage market is broad. The number of households can be obtained according to the population of each country and the average household population. According to the average system electrification assumed by the market mainstream product electrification, it is estimated that the household energy storage space in the United States is 130 million households/1725 GWh, that in Europe is 310 million households/2727 GWh, and that in Australia is 8.03 million households/60 GWh.
Calculation of household energy storage ceiling
Power station energy storage
China: The cost reduction of the industrial chain is accelerated, and the energy storage facilities are growing The core driving force for the development of domestic energy storage power plants lies in the policy requirement that new energy generating units be forced to allocate energy storage. All provinces and cities have issued relevant policy documents, which have certain requirements on the proportion of energy storage configuration and charging hours, and encourage new energy projects to configure energy storage from encouraging to requiring configuration. The configuration proportion is generally 10-20%, and the configuration time is generally 2h.
In China, 25 provinces have issued documents defining the new energy allocation and energy storage, and Zhejiang, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Shaanxi Xi'an and other regions have introduced local subsidy policies. Ten provinces published price documents for energy storage to participate in peak shaving services, encouraging the development of grid side energy storage.
Relevant policy documents
Based on the demand of mandatory storage, energy storage installation is closely related to the rhythm of wind photovoltaic installation. It is estimated that the construction progress of wind power and photovoltaic will accelerate in 2023, which will benefit the demand for energy storage. (1) Photovoltaic: The new capacity of upstream silicon materials is put into operation, which is expected to bring about a price reduction in the photovoltaic industry chain, and the demand for installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations is increasing year on year;
Price trend of polysilicon (10000 yuan/ton)
(2) Wind power: From the second half of 2021, the cost reduction trend of wind power host plants is clear, and the investment cost of wind power is significantly reduced.
Bidding price trend of fan (mainly based on 3S platform, unit: yuan/kW)
According to our calculation, it is estimated that the installed capacity of energy storage power stations will reach 35.8GWh in 2022, and will increase to 118.8GWh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 64% from 2021-2025. Among them, China and the United States are the largest regions, with 36.3GWh installed in China and 45.2GWh in the United States in 2025.
Calculation of market space of energy storage power plants (GWh)
USA: ITC subsidies are strengthened after the IRA Act is updated
The United States is the world's largest energy storage market, and the installed capacity of energy storage in front of the meter is growing rapidly. According to EIA statistics, as of August 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in the US market is 6.8GW/14.8GWh. The installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will grow rapidly in 2021.
The unit will be put into operation 3.3GW/8.4GWh in 2021, and it is expected to be put into operation 5.7GW/11.4GWh (+77%/35% year-on-year) in 2022. At present, it is planned to put into operation 8.1GW/16.2GWh (+42%/42% year-on-year) in 2023. In terms of monthly installed capacity, 415.2MW/830.4MWh of grid connected installed capacity will be added in August 2022,+516%/+317% year-on-year and+5%/3% month on month.
US energy storage installation and planning since 2020 (MW)
US energy storage installation and planning since 2020 (MWh)
The catalysis of energy storage in the United States comes from the extension and enhancement of ITC subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act. The maximum income tax credit can reach 50% of the initial investment cost, which will promote the growth of installed capacity of energy storage projects. On August 16, 2022, US President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which revised ITC and PTC policies. The policy period was extended for 10 years, and the subsidy intensity was increased. For energy storage projects, the changes are: (1) Scope of application: Previously, only energy storage projects co built with PV and at least 75% of the power comes from PV can enjoy ITC, and both energy storage projects co built and independent energy storage projects can enjoy ITC after updating. (2) Credit limit: previously, the ITC limit has been reduced from 30% to 26%/22%/10% in 2022/23/24. After the update, eligible projects will continue to receive 30%, and some unqualified projects with power greater than 1MWac will be reduced to 6%. (3) Additional credit: 1) Domestic manufacturing: 10%/2% extra will be obtained for projects that all use American made steel products and the cost of domestic raw materials accounts for 40%; 2) Energy community: additional credit 10%/2%. (Low income community conditions are only applicable to photovoltaic and wind power projects). The ITC credit was increased, and the cost of energy storage per kilowatt hour was reduced. Assume that the energy storage power station is 100MW/400MWh; The annual operation days are 350 days, and the service life is 20 years; The initial investment of the power station is $210/kwh, with a total investment of $84.1 million.
According to the current ITC tax credit policy, the new energy distribution and storage project credit limit is 26% in 22 years and 22% in 23 years, the calculated energy storage LCOS is $0.130/kwh and $0.131/kwh, the independent energy storage project credit limit is 0, and the LCOS is $0.137/kwh. In the new version of ITC tax credit policy (30%/40%/50%), the energy storage LCOS decreased to $0.129/kwh, $0.127/kwh, and $0.125/kwh.
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