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The latest research report of 11 securities companies: the new energy storage industry is still a high growth track

On December 5, Huaxin Securities released a research report, pointing out that with the recovery of ground photovoltaic power stations and the growth of grid connection demand in 2023, the demand for energy storage and consumption will increase accordingly. The mode of "unified dispatching and shared use" is adopted for independent shared energy storage, which is not only conducive to the participation of power grid dispatching and energy storage power stations in auxiliary services such as frequency modulation, but also conducive to improving the reliability of the power system, as well as increasing the profits of energy storage power stations through capacity lease income. Therefore, independent shared energy storage is expected to replace new energy distribution and storage as the mainstream.

On December 8, Goldman Sachs released a research report pointing out that the demand for public utilities in China, Australia and the United States will show a strong growth, while the residential ESS market in the EU will still show a strong growth. In the utility scale market, the top 10 players in the world will account for 90% of the market; For the residential ESS market, experts believe that brand is more important. For less affluent markets, such as South Africa, price is a more important determinant.

On December 12, Hua'an Securities released a research report pointing out that electrochemical energy storage is the mainstream technology path of the current new energy storage, and it is optimistic about the application prospect of gravity energy storage in the future. At present, the mainstream energy storage technologies include pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage. Among the new energy storage technologies, the electrochemical energy storage technology represented by lithium ion battery is the most mature.

On December 13, Guohai Securities released a research report pointing out that molten salt, as an excellent heat transfer and energy storage medium, has the characteristics of wide operating temperature range, high energy storage density, no need for high-pressure operation, low viscosity, good liquidity, etc. At present, molten salt energy storage technology has been widely used in solar photovoltaic power generation system and other new energy systems. It uses the nitrate energy storage characteristics to convert solar thermal energy into molten salt thermal energy to store and emit energy, realizing energy migration in time and meeting the peak shaving demand of renewable energy grid. In addition to the field of light and heat, molten salt energy storage has unique economic and competitive advantages in the fields of smart grid, electric molten salt energy storage heating, flexible transformation of thermal power units, and thermoelectric decoupling.

On December 14, Donghai Securities released a research report, pointing out that under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the scale of new energy installations represented by wind power has been rapidly expanded, greatly increasing the demand for new energy power consumption. Liquid flow battery has attracted much attention in the field of large-scale electrochemical energy storage due to its strong flexibility and expandability in system design, low price and easy availability of electrolyte, and all materials can be recycled. However, the liquid flow battery started late in China, the manufacturers of liquid flow battery are limited, and the industrialization is still in the early stage of development. Solving technical problems and improving the industrial chain is the future development trend. Among them, all vanadium liquid flow battery is a relatively advanced technology in the liquid flow battery industry at present, with long-term energy storage and high safety, which is more suitable for configuration around the sparsely populated centralized wind power stations.

On December 15, Deppon Securities released a research report pointing out that the installation of new energy increased rapidly, and there was a strong demand for the construction of compressed air energy storage. The installed scale of new energy is rapidly increasing, and the impact of wind power generation on the grid is gradually increasing. Long term large capacity can adjust the fluctuation of new energy power generation in a longer time dimension, and its role will gradually become prominent. Both pumped storage and compressed air energy storage are long-term and large capacity storage, but the construction period of compressed air energy storage is generally 12-18 months, which is far less than pumped storage, and is less affected by geographical location. In the future, the country will have a strong demand to promote the construction of compressed air energy storage projects.

On December 15, East Asia Qianhai Securities released a research report pointing out that in terms of new energy storage, the grid connection of new energy power generation provides opportunities for the development of new energy storage industry. By the end of September 2022, 24 provinces and regions in China have issued new energy allocation and storage policies. At the same time, the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage pointed out that by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30GW, and China's new energy storage industry has broad development space. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and new energy storage track has promoted the prosperity of lithium battery industry.

On December 17, China Post Securities released a research report pointing out that the energy storage industry is a long-term high-quality super track, which will maintain rapid growth in the next few years. 2023 will be the starting point for the long-term and short-term high growth of the energy storage industry. The growth rate of China's large reserves is expected to double, and Europe, America and other countries will also maintain rapid growth.

On December 18, the research report of Haitong International pointed out that the main reason for the need for energy storage is to reduce the waste of wind and light and provide auxiliary services. The instability and volatility of the scenery will stimulate the demand for peak shaving and frequency regulation, and energy storage will benefit greatly. Once, as a power generation technology that competed positively with photovoltaic, solar thermal failed because the cost of electricity per kilowatt hour decreased less than photovoltaic. Nowadays, as an energy storage technology, photothermal is no longer only competing with photovoltaic at the cost of kilowatt hour electricity. Due to its energy storage characteristics, economy and government policy support, the growth momentum of photothermal is very strong, which is enough to compete with various energy storage technologies and return to the market.

On December 19, Guotai Jun'an released a research report pointing out that the traditional downstream of temperature control has maintained steady growth, and the energy storage field will bring new growth in the future, which is rated as "overweight" for the first time. The demand for energy storage is growing day by day, and the increase in the proportion of installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage power plants drives the demand for temperature control systems to be strong. It is estimated that the energy storage temperature control market in China is expected to reach 6.874 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021-2025 may be as high as 64.03%. Liquid cooling is expected to become the mainstream technology route of energy storage temperature control, and the liquid cooling permeability is expected to reach 50% in 2025.

On December 21, Guohai Securities released a research report, pointing out that mandatory storage is the core driving force for the development of energy storage in China at present, and the energy storage policy has improved the cost pressure of new energy storage at the margin. 2) The accelerated development of domestic energy storage does not lie in the independent profitability of energy storage, but mainly depends on whether the comprehensive rate of return of "new energy+energy storage" can meet the requirements of return on investment. 3) Looking ahead, it is expected that the northern region may divert more regulatory costs to the new energy side, and energy storage may gradually shift from a mandatory policy to a market-oriented mechanism.