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Gather the wisdom of all, where is the business opportunity of 2023 energy storage industry chain?

The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 15-16, 2022 set the direction of economic work for the next year, and the main theme is to make progress while maintaining stability. At the same time, through the Strategic Planning Outline for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) issued by the central government, it is necessary to organically combine a new round of "expanding domestic demand" with "supply side reform". On the one hand, we should speed up domestic substitution to meet demand, especially in areas with high external dependence and involving the safety of the industrial chain supply chain, so as to achieve self-reliance in science and technology; On the other hand, we should encourage technological innovation to create demand, bring new products, new formats and new models through technological innovation and industrial transformation, and create new demand with new supply. The energy storage industry, as an important branch of the strategic emerging industry and new energy and an important component of the new infrastructure, is endowed with these industrial attributes and advantages. In the process of the continuous maturity of the industrial chain supply chain, it has the industrial characteristics of shouldering the national strategic mission, which is reasonable to become a favorable starting point for expanding domestic demand through supply side reform. After facing the block of unprecedented changes in a hundred years and the century's epidemic, the post epidemic era has officially arrived. The global economy may gradually start the fourth round of post-war growth cycle. China has the conditions to return to the growth track. The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries will become a powerful path to drive sustainable economic growth.

Great changes may usher in great differentiation, and there are still opportunities in the great crisis. Here, let's take a look at the latest research reports of several research institutions and see where the market opportunities are in the energy storage industry chain in Kuimao?

On December 1, 2022, the report of Western Securities, "The East Wind of the Industry is Coming, and New Energy Storage Can Be Prosperous", pointed out that independent shared energy storage can effectively solve the problems of the current low rate of decentralized allocation, storage and utilization of new energy, and its market position is gradually clear. Independent energy storage has become the mainstream business model for the development of large energy storage in China. Independent shared energy storage has increased to 37% of the new energy storage installed capacity in 2022Q1-Q3, and the scalar quantity will account for 64% (excluding centralized procurement) in January October 2022. Abundant standard quantity will help China's energy storage industry enter the fast lane of development. The distribution and storage of large photovoltaic power stations will be an important driving force for the industry demand in 2023. It is estimated that in 2025, China's energy storage demand will be 86.9GW/274.4GWh, and the CAGR will be 91%/116% from 2021-2025; The global demand is 222.7GW/656.6GWh, and the CAGR will be 89%/110% from 2022 to 2025.

On December 11, 2022, the report of CSC Securities entitled "Flexible resources in power systems will face long-term shortage" pointed out that China's power grid investment has been redundant, while power investment needs to be "made up", and flexible resources face long-term scarcity. However, flexible resources are diverse and complementary rather than substitutive. Each flexible resource has its own characteristics and scope of application, and is not "exclusive". According to the market space measurement of the flexible power supply industry chain, electrochemistry is the largest, and other varieties have 10 billion level space. Electrochemical energy storage will reach the TWh level by 2030, with a market space of more than one trillion yuan. It is estimated that the global electrochemical energy storage will increase by about 85GWh in 2022, 171GWh in 2023, 390GWh in 2025 and 1580GWh in 2030. Among them, China will increase about 25GWh in 2022 and 49GWh in 2023; The US will increase about 23GWh in 2022 and 52GWh in 2023; Europe will add about 20GWh in 2022 and 42GWh in 2023.

On December 13, 2022, Huachuang Securities reported the 2023 Investment Strategy for Energy Storage Industry, pointing out that under the dual carbon background, energy storage is driven by the transformation of the energy structure. The industry has a significant feature of just demand, and high growth has gradually become the consensus of the market. The domestic large reserves are in the early stage of industry development, the scale effect has not yet formed, the cost input is in advance, and the profitability is not obvious. The profitability is expected to continue to increase under the resonance of policies, technology, scale and other factors. The most promising energy storage direction in 2023 is EPC, PCS, energy storage batteries and temperature control. Around the world, European household storage penetration rate is still low, quality and brand are the key elements of C-end consumers' attention, and the industry still has a large space; After the IRA Act, American energy storage is expected to continue to usher in a decade of prosperity, especially independent energy storage is expected to usher in rapid growth in the short term.

On December 15, 2022, East Asia Qianhai Securities reported "Research Framework for Lithium Battery Industry", pointing out that the capacity of lithium iron phosphate is expanding and the demand is improving. In 2017-2021, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased from 77000 tons to 447500 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 55.27%; From January to September 2022, the output will continue to rise, reaching 649700 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 120.76%. This is mainly due to the growth of production and sales of downstream new energy vehicles and the new energy storage industry to meet the development opportunities, providing a broad market space for lithium iron phosphate. From January to November 2022, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate industry in China has always been above 86%, of which the operating rate in November 2022 is 94.77%, which is at a historical high, indicating the high prosperity of lithium iron phosphate industry in China.

On December 17, 2022, China Post Securities pointed out in the 2023 Annual Energy Storage Industry Strategy Report that the total global energy storage demand is expected to reach 117GWh in 2022, with a growth rate of 58%, including China+51%, the United States+42% and Europe+93%; In 2023, the total global energy storage demand will reach 188GWh, with a growth rate of 60%, including+94% in China,+57% in the United States and+35% in Europe; In 2024, the total global energy storage demand will reach 285GWh, with a growth rate of 52%, including+73% in China,+49% in the United States and+37% in Europe. For China, with the rich and diversified energy system and the continuous promotion of the overall power reform, the fluctuation of the grid terminal price will promote the development of the energy storage industry in the future. In the PCS chip link, which is the most scarce in the energy storage industry chain, it is estimated that in 2022, the output of China's IGBT industry will reach 41 million, the demand will be about 156 million, and the self-sufficiency rate will be 26.3%.

On December 18, 2022, Haitong International Securities reported that the new model of solar thermal energy storage is just around the corner, pointing out that solar thermal energy storage has returned to the horizon and the cost of electricity per kilowatt hour is competitive. Solar thermal energy storage has a broad market space. According to the assumption and calculation, about 75% of the northwest photovoltaic large base project will be configured with light and heat, and the configuration proportion is 11%. The new market capacity of light and heat in the 14th and 15th year is about 98.7 billion yuan. As the solar thermal power generation can be configured with a heat storage system, the solar thermal generator set can generate power stably without light. If the capacity of the thermal storage system is large enough, the unit can achieve 24-hour continuous power generation, and the photothermal power station can achieve stable power generation different from photovoltaic. In 2021, the global proportion of molten salt heat storage will be 1.6%, and it may become an excellent student in the auxiliary service market in the future.

On December 19, 2022, Guotai Jun'an Securities reported that the traditional temperature control is developing steadily, and the energy storage temperature control is starting to grow rapidly. It pointed out that the traditional downstream applications of the temperature control system are extensive, including industrial manufacturing, communication base stations, data centers, and new energy vehicles. With the rapid development of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy power generation, the demand for energy storage is growing day by day. The increase in the proportion of installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage power plants drives the demand for temperature control systems to be strong. It is estimated that the energy storage temperature control market in China is expected to reach 6.874 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021-2025 may be as high as 64.03%. It is worth mentioning that liquid cooling is expected to become the mainstream technology route of energy storage temperature control, and the liquid cooling permeability is expected to reach 50% in 2025. At present, the temperature control market is still dominated by air cooling systems. Because of its low cost and simple structure, it is widely used in small and medium-sized energy storage plants with low heat dissipation requirements. It is estimated that the proportion of air cooling systems will reach 85% in 2022. The cooling effect of liquid cooling system is better than that of air cooling, and the full cycle cost is low. It is expected to be rapidly applied in large energy storage power plants. With the large-scale construction of energy storage projects in 2023, the implementation of energy storage temperature control will be accelerated to promote the performance of temperature control manufacturers, and the valuation is expected to further increase.

On December 21, 2022, Guohai Securities pointed out in its report Electrochemical Energy Storage Research Framework: Taking China, the United States and Europe as Examples that mandatory energy storage is the core driving force for the development of energy storage in China at present, and energy storage policies have improved the cost pressure of new energy distribution and storage at the margin. The domestic energy storage business model is still in a perfect period, and cost competition is still the core of competition in all aspects. There is an obvious vertical integration trend in the energy storage industry in the United States, with upstream and downstream industries entering the integration link one after another. The participation of domestic enterprises in the U.S. energy storage market is mainly focused on equipment supply, and integrators are important entrances to the U.S. energy storage market. With the increase of new developers and disintermediation of integrators in the US market, domestic energy storage integrators are expected to welcome more opportunities. The domestic battery sector has obvious competitive advantages, and other sectors are expected to meet new development opportunities through direct sailing. In Europe, with the continuous development of PV and the steady increase of its penetration rate, the integration of household light storage is expected to become the mainstream of the development of household PV in various countries. It is expected that the household energy storage market will achieve more than double growth in 2022 and maintain a high growth rate after 2023-2025. Among them, small cells and high voltage are important trends in the development of household energy storage products, and the shortage of small cells is expected to gradually ease.