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Review of 2022: overseas household savings+overseas large savings+domestic large savings

Overseas household savings

The installed capacity of global household energy storage is growing rapidly, and the new installed capacity CAGR in the next three years will exceed 100%. The rise in electricity price is the trigger for the rapid growth of household energy storage. In September, Europe began to control electricity prices, but we believe that the decline in short-term electricity prices will not change the trend of high increase in household energy storage in Europe.

At present, the terminal electricity price is still high, and the electricity price contract signed by European residents in 2023 is high. The electricity price under the new contract will increase by 80-120% year on year, and it is expected to keep high prices in the next 2-3 years. Under the assumption of 50 euro sub electricity price, the German household optical storage system will have a yield of 18.7% (considering 19% VAT rebate), and the German household storage economy is very strong.

In the long run, user consumption habits have gradually formed. With the decline of the cost of optical storage system, the rate of return has risen. We believe that the penetration rate of user storage will continue to increase! We predict that the installed capacity of global household energy storage is expected to reach 62.6GW/142.39GWh by 2025. In 2025, 220.4GWh of household energy storage batteries and 19.389 million sets of household energy storage inverters will be shipped worldwide.

Overseas large reserves

The United States is the world's largest large reserve market, which will continue its high growth trend in 2022. According to Wood Mackenzie, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the United States in 2022Q1-3 reached 3.57GW/10.67GWh, an increase of 102%/93%, of which the new installed capacity of energy storage in the United States in 2022Q3 was 1.44GW/5.19GWh, an increase of 27%/48%, and a ring increase of 23%/99%.

In addition, the optical storage permeability of 2022Q3 has reached a new record high, and the photovoltaic distribution and storage permeability has reached a peak of 31.5%, among which the distribution and storage permeability of centralized photovoltaic power stations is the highest in all scenarios. According to Berkeley Lab, the filing of energy storage projects in the United States is accelerating. As of November 2022, the filing of energy storage projects has reached 22.53GW, with a year-on-year growth of 72% to 13.13GW.

Considering that the US has sufficient energy storage records and the ITC tax credit policy has been implemented, the short-term high growth trend of the market will continue. We predict that the installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will reach 21GWh and 41GWh respectively in 2022 and 2023, and the additional installed capacity of energy storage in the United States will reach 123GWh by 2025, and the CAGR will be 81.18% from 2022 to 2025.

Large domestic reserves

A number of energy storage policies have been introduced intensively this year, and the shared energy storage model has risen rapidly. From the two dimensions of "volume" and "profit", the rapid growth of domestic large storage and installation capacity is promoted. At the same time, the emergence of new business models drives the economic improvement of large storage projects and also promotes the growth of installed capacity.

In terms of "quantity": since 2021, 23 provinces and cities have proposed new energy distribution and storage needs, with the distribution and storage ratio required to be between 10% and 20%, and the distribution and storage duration required to be more than 2h (some provinces require up to 4h), promoting the rapid growth of the construction of large reserves.

"Profit": a. The construction of the spot electricity market has been continuously improved, the peak valley price difference has continued to expand, and the energy storage arbitrage income has continued to grow; B. The detailed rules of Southern Power Grid, East China and other regions have been issued successively to clarify the subsidy standard for energy storage participation in auxiliary services. At the same time, the varieties of primary frequency modulation, black start and other projects have gradually been added to the subsidy list, and the income from energy storage auxiliary services is expected to continue to grow; C. Shandong pioneered the capacity electricity price, Hunan followed up the exploration of capacity electricity price+transmission and distribution electricity price reform, and the user side began to participate in cost sharing. The capacity compensation fund pool is expected to continue to expand, changing the "zero sum game" state between traditional energy and new energy, and the long-term development of energy storage is sustainable; D. The independent/shared energy storage model is growing rapidly, and the revenue channels are more diversified. From January to November 2022, the national shared energy storage is proposed to be under construction and the scale of bidding is about 11.47GW.

According to our calculation, the total demand for new installed capacity of large storage capacity on the power generation side in China in 2022/2025 will be 5.8/44.0GW and 11.2/106.4GWh, respectively, and the CAGR in 2022-2025 will be 92.36%/111.88%.

Winning the bid of energy storage project in 2022 (MWh, as of December 30)

Average bid winning price of energy storage EPC in 2022 (yuan/Wh, as of December 30)

According to incomplete statistics, the annual energy storage EPC bid winning project in 2022 has reached 24.60GWh, and the annual average bid winning price is 1.91/Wh. The bid winning scale of energy storage EPC project since November is 5.74GWh. The average bid winning price of EPC in November was 1.59 yuan/Wh, down 30.6% month on month. The bid winning scale of energy storage EPC project in November was 2.46GWh.