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| Independent energy storage or become the main mode of domestic large energy stor |
| Release time:2023-01-06 09:37:42| Viewed： |
Independent energy storage or become the main mode of domestic large energy storage
In 2022, the price of energy storage batteries and energy storage inverters will rise, which will lead to an increase in the price of energy storage. According to incomplete statistics, the average bid winning price of the energy storage system in August was 1.62 yuan/Wh, 33% higher than the average price of 1.22 yuan/Wh at the beginning of 2022. After the price rise, the yield of the optical storage power station will drop by 2-3 pct, which will stimulate the emergence of independent energy storage and energy storage lease mode under the requirement of mandatory storage allocation.
Independent/shared energy storage has the advantage of cost reduction on a large scale. It can earn income by leasing peak shaving capacity and participating in auxiliary services or power market transactions. According to relevant calculations, the yield of independent energy storage can reach 8.4%. There are 2 independent energy storage power stations that will be put into operation in 2022H1, 17 projects that have started construction, 64 projects that have entered/completed EPC and energy storage equipment bidding, with a total scale of 9.24GW/18.55GWh.
Independent/shared energy storage is a good model for energy storage profitability in China's current market, or it may become mainstream in China.
1. After the price rise, the profitability of the power station decreases, stimulating the development of shared energy storage mode
◆ The increase in the price of energy storage reduces the profitability of the power station. Under the requirement of mandatory storage, the development of independent/shared energy storage mode is stimulated. Assuming the operation scale of 100MW and the allocation and storage of 10% * 2h, considering the rising cost of components, the cost of the power station is RMB 4/W, the cost of energy storage is RMB 1.8/W, and the comprehensive cost of the power station after the allocation and storage is RMB 4.36/W (before the price increase, it is RMB 4.1/W), the yield is about 2 pct lower than that before the price increase.
Therefore, the price increase will affect certain demand, but the domestic mandatory storage, independent/shared energy storage mode will be promoted. Shared energy storage refers to the optimal allocation of independent and decentralized energy storage power station resources on the grid side, power supply side and user side of the whole network, with the grid as the link, and the unified coordination of the grid to promote the full release of energy storage capacity at each end of the source network load.
Economic calculation of 100 MW allocation and storage 25% * 2h
The rise of shared energy storage mode
2. The advantages of shared energy storage are highlighted and the benefits are diversified
Shared energy storage advantages:
◆ 1. Meet the mandatory allocation requirements: the mandatory allocation and storage requirements can be completed by leasing, and the initial investment cost of the power station can be reduced;
◆ 2. Cost reduction on a large scale: large-scale construction is conducive to cost reduction and the development of third-party independent energy storage operators;
◆ 3. Participation in dispatching: more concentrated participation in peak shaving and frequency regulation of power grid, recovery of abandoned power and other services, to improve the utilization rate and profitability of energy storage;
Source of shared energy storage profits:
◆ 1. Rental income: provide energy storage capacity leasing services for new energy power stations; The new policy of Henan Province suggests that the lease expense standard is 260 yuan/kW · year, which is the first time that the lease expense standard is proposed at the level of policy formulation nationwide.
◆ 2. Participating in auxiliary services or power market transactions: obtaining peak regulation and frequency regulation service fees by participating in grid calls; Or through participating in the spot electricity trading market, especially the power purchase cooperation with industrial and commercial enterprises, the peak valley price difference can be profitable; Uniformly recover the abandoned power of the power station project for grid connection.
Chart: Profit model of shared energy storage power stations in Hunan and Shandong
3. Shared energy storage case analysis
A 100MW/200MWh shared energy storage project in Shandong Province
◆ Grid characteristics: thermal power is the main power, and auxiliary services and spot markets have been established
◆ Income source: incentive income from energy storage lease, peak shaving and planned electricity
◆ Assumption: the cost is 2 yuan/wh (10% over allocation), the lease fee is 330 yuan/kw, the peak shaving calls are 500 times/1000 hours per year, and the operation is 25 years
◆ Economy: IRR8.4%
Analysis of a shared energy storage project in Shandong Province
4. Independent/shared energy storage is expected to become the main form of China's energy storage market
◆ The construction of independent energy storage power stations is in full swing. At present, most of the large energy storage projects are constructed and operated through bidding by subsidiaries of the power grid, which is a good model for energy storage profitability in the current market of China. This business model may become the mainstream in China.
According to the statistics of energy storage and power market, in the first half of 2022, there will be 2 independent energy storage power stations that will be put into operation in the grid, 17 projects that will start construction, and 64 projects that have entered/completed EPC and energy storage equipment bidding, with a total scale of 9.24GW/18.55GWh;
At present, only about 7% of the projects are put into operation+construction, about 22% are EPC/equipment procurement, and 71% of the projects are still in the planning and feasibility study stage. With the increase of demand, the later operation rate is guaranteed, and the long-term development of the industry is expected to continue to be good.
Scale of independent energy storage projects that have started and started EPC/equipment procurement in 2022H1 (MW)
2022H1 Independent Energy Storage Project Progress (GW) |
