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| Photovoltaic situation |
| Release time:2023-02-01 11:27:01| Viewed： |
Photovoltaic situation
In recent years, the country has vigorously developed the new energy industry, especially since the "double carbon" goal was put forward in 2020, the new energy field has received greater attention. In the field of new energy, photovoltaic performance is very bright. On July 7, 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the Special Report on the Global Supply Chain of Photovoltaics, believing that by 2025, the world will almost completely rely on China for the key components used in the production of photovoltaic modules.
Photovoltaic manufacturing can be roughly divided into four links: polysilicon, silicon wafer, cell and module. In 2021, the global output of these four manufacturing links in China will account for more than 75%.
How strong is China's photovoltaic industry? Is PV really worth being so optimistic? Does this track have long-term competitiveness? Recently, Tongwei, a leading company with a market value of 100 billion, has made a great deal of noise. Its book "The First Leading Role of Future Carbon Neutralization and Human Energy" has deeply analyzed the logic of PV, and has made a comprehensive statement of its own development path and its judgment on the industry.
01. The leading role of carbon neutralization
When clean energy consumption accounts for more than 80% of future energy consumption, solar energy, wind energy, water energy, nuclear energy, hydrogen energy and biomass energy will play an important role. But what kind of energy will be the pillar?
The answer is undoubtedly solar energy.
Solar energy is everywhere and the total amount is huge. People can obtain this sustainable clean energy with zero emission and zero pollution at a very low cost.
Let's look at other clean energy sources first.
Wind energy
Compared with traditional fossil energy, wind energy will not produce greenhouse gases in the process of energy supply, and as a renewable energy in nature, wind energy can continuously provide huge energy supplement for mankind.
The global wind energy reserves are not only extremely rich, but also widely distributed, involving almost all countries and regions. Since the wind energy technology is relatively simple, it will not affect the conversion efficiency due to manufacturing materials and other factors, so since the 1970s, wind energy has been the fastest growing energy and the largest proportion of installed capacity in the field of new energy.
At present, the world's largest wind turbine generator is the "V164" located in Denmark: a 220-meter-high main body, with three 80-meter-long blades, can generate enough electricity in a day to meet the power demand of hundreds of local households for a month.
Offshore wind power is an important development direction of wind power in the future.
However, wind power also has the disadvantages of intermittence and instability. There are great differences in power generation efficiency between windy and windless, windy and windy. This leads to the inability of wind power generation to increase or decrease power generation according to demand. It must be used together with other power sources or storage facilities to provide energy supplement and replacement within the scope to ensure the stable supply of electricity.
At the same time, wind power generation has higher regional requirements for power station construction, and it is mainly large power station construction, which is not suitable for distributed layout. However, there are no disadvantages. In the future energy system, wind energy is bound to occupy a place.
Hydroenergy
The characteristics of water energy include cheap and clean, which can be used for power generation and can also be converted into mechanical energy to do work. It is the oldest, most mature and most widely used energy among all renewable energies.
The Three Gorges Hydropower Station with a total installed capacity of 22.5GW is the largest hydropower station in the world at present.
The development and utilization of water resources is clean and pollution-free on the surface, but it will have an impact on the surrounding ecological environment. Aswan Dam in Egypt was completed in the early 1970s. It was once an energy project that Egyptians were proud of. It not only solved the problem of uneven distribution of local water resources in the rainy and dry seasons, but also provided cheap electricity for the country, making industrial development and industrialization possible.
However, with the passage of time, the impact of Aswan Dam on the ecological balance of the Nile River basin gradually revealed. At the same time of impoundment in the upstream, a large amount of fertile soil rich in nutrients has also been locked in the upstream, and large-scale salinization has occurred in the downstream and coastal soil, and the area of the estuary delta has been seriously reduced; A large amount of sludge rich in microorganisms has been deposited in the reservoir area, causing the crazy growth of algae and plankton, the serious deterioration of water quality, and the damage to the health of residents living along the river.
This is not an exception. There are different degrees of ecological damage in Kenya's Mwaya Hydropower Station and Meinong Reservoir in Taiwan. Many environmentalists and groups also oppose the construction of large hydropower stations. However, throughout the global experience, almost all countries are actively developing and utilizing hydropower, so hydropower stations play an important role in the current energy system.
nuclear energy
Compared with other energy sources, nuclear energy has countless advantages. High energy, clean and stable.
In the second half of the 20th century, countries with technological support began to rush to develop nuclear energy, and the installed capacity growth in the 1970s exceeded 700%.
However, the Chernobyl incident in 1986 broke the myth of nuclear energy. The leakage of more than 8 tons of strong radioactive substances produced a nuclear radiation intensity equivalent to 500 atomic bombs dropped by the United States on Japan during World War II. 60000 square kilometers of land including Russia, Belarus and Ukraine were contaminated, and tens of thousands of people were killed. More people suffered from cancer due to the influence of radioactive substances. The Chernobyl incident caused the world to reflect on nuclear power. The public began to oppose nuclear power. Some countries stopped the construction of nuclear power plants. The global nuclear power market shrank for the first time. In the 1990s, its growth rate was even less than 5%. In March 2011, the earthquake triggered the Fukushima nuclear leakage accident in Japan again sounded the alarm bell for mankind. Germany, Switzerland and Italy have announced their withdrawal from the layout of nuclear power, and France and South Korea have also begun to gradually reduce the layout of future nuclear power.
Because of the huge safety risks of nuclear fission technology, people have turned to nuclear fusion technology for the application of nuclear energy in the future.
However, it is very difficult to realize controllable nuclear power generation in application, because the two major difficulties of nuclear fusion power generation are the ignition temperature of hundreds of millions of degrees Celsius and the long-term and stable constraint operation. If large-scale application is to be realized, it will take at least half a century of exploration, and perhaps nuclear fusion technology can go out of the laboratory at the end of the 21st century.
biomass energy
Biomass energy has the characteristics of large resources, controllable combustion and high energy quality.
Since the 1990s, biomass energy has been widely developed in countries with developed agriculture. Brazil has been focusing on the research of bio-fluid route with sugarcane as the main raw material, and has become a major country of bio-fluid fuel in the early 21st century; Europe encourages the development of biomass energy through policy subsidies; In 2009, the United States produced 11.784 billion kg of soybeans for the production of biomass fuel.
However, after 2010, the discussion on biomass energy in the industry has become less and less popular, mainly because it is necessary to cultivate to obtain biomass fuel.
In the case of extremely limited growth of cultivation space, if biomass energy is still developed, it is bound to have a conflict of interest with agriculture. From the perspective of economic benefits, the income from the same area of land used to grow food is far less than that used to grow biomass fuel. The choice of capital is self-evident. In the long run, more contradictions will arise on the energy issue.
In addition, in terms of energy utilization efficiency, biomass energy is not economical. In addition, the greenhouse gas produced by the burning of straw, garbage and biogas is no less than that of traditional fossil energy. The application of biomass energy can only solve the problem of energy sustainability, and it is still unable to cope with environmental problems.
In the future energy system, biomass energy represented by garbage incineration power generation, biogas combustion power generation and ethanol gasoline will continue to develop, but it is definitely not the mainstream.
Hydrogen energy
There are many benefits of hydrogen energy: the product of hydrogen combustion is only water, clean and pollution-free; With the increasingly mature technology of producing green hydrogen from electrolytic water, hydrogen energy can be regarded as an inexhaustible renewable energy; The calorific value of hydrogen is extremely high, and burning 1 kg of hydrogen can release 1.4 × The heat of 108 joules is about twice that of natural gas of the same quality. If it can be popularized in transportation, the carbon emissions of global transportation will be greatly curbed.
In 2019, hydrogen energy was included in the Government Work Report for the first time. Driven by the goal of "double carbon", hydrogen energy has rapidly entered the hot track of the energy revolution, and is even known as the most promising clean energy in the 21st century. China Hydrogen Energy Alliance predicts that by 2030 and 2050, China's hydrogen terminal energy will account for more than 5% and 10% respectively.
However, hydrogen energy has many limitations. First of all, hydrogen energy is a secondary energy, not a primary energy. It needs to be produced from other energy sources. Secondly, the small volume energy density of hydrogen is a fatal disadvantage. If you want to increase the bulk energy density, you need to increase the pressure and use a special hydrogen storage tank for storage. This will undoubtedly increase the application cost and resistance of hydrogen. In addition, compared with other gases, hydrogen is very easy to leak, and it is more difficult to use and store than other gases. Especially in relatively closed spaces, such as underground parking lots and warehouses, it is easy to explode once it leaks. In order to meet the safety standards, the hydrogen refueling station needs to be located in an open place far away from downtown areas, equipped with special safety equipment, and the construction cost is quite high.
These restrictions have cast a shadow over the development of hydrogen and hydrogen vehicles. From hydrogen production in the upstream to hydrogen transportation and storage in the midstream, to the construction of terminal hydrogen stations and the application of hydrogen vehicles, the hydrogen-centered energy system faces many difficulties. For this reason, Tesla CEO Musk publicly said to the media that "fuel cells have no future." And hydrogen fuel cells are the main products of "fuel cells" as Musk said.
Therefore, although hydrogen energy has always been the focus of attention in the energy market, it is still a relatively marginalized energy source, in addition to the large-scale application of hydrogen fuel in launch vehicles.
However, it can be predicted that with the new wave of carbon neutrality, hydrogen energy will continue to develop, and as a secondary or even tertiary energy, it will play an important supporting role.
By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the above five new energies, we can roughly infer their share in the future energy system: wind energy>water energy>hydrogen energy>nuclear energy>biomass energy.
But on the way to achieve carbon neutrality, the energy that can really play a leading role should be the solar energy with the shortest path, the highest conversion efficiency and the most convenient use.
02. Advantages of the protagonist
In essence, neither the traditional fossil energy nor the new energy such as wind energy, water energy, biomass energy, etc, are separated from the sun itself, just the different forms of solar energy.
Since solar energy is everywhere, it is one of the main sources of energy for mankind to gather the scattered energy. But the solar energy we are talking about here refers to the direct conversion of solar radiation energy into photoelectricity, photothermal and photochemistry. In particular, photovoltaic conversion, namely solar photovoltaic power generation, is the most promising energy technology.
First, the technical principle is the most advanced.
The principle of solar photovoltaic power generation is simpler and faster than other energy sources. Fossil energy needs to be converted into heat energy and then into electric energy through combustion. Wind energy and water energy need to convert the kinetic energy of wind and water into mechanical energy, and then into electrical energy.
And solar energy is the direct conversion from photon motion to electronic telecontrol, and from light to electricity. This means that the principle of photovoltaic power generation is the simplest and most advanced.
Second, the total amount is huge.
It is estimated that the solar energy received by the earth's surface every day is equivalent to the energy produced by 100 million barrels of oil. Even if the sun shines on the earth for one hour, the energy stored will be enough for human consumption for one year.
Moreover, this huge fireball has been boiling for nearly 5 billion years. According to physicists, the life of the sun is about 10 billion years, so the sun can shine on the earth for 5 billion years. Solar energy is almost "eternal energy".
Third, it is widely distributed.
The term "sunshine" describes the properties of solar energy particularly accurately. Compared with other energy sources, solar energy is the most accessible and fair energy source.
Areas with annual sunshine hours of more than 2000 hours account for more than 2/3 of the total land area in China, and have good conditions for utilizing solar energy. This is not even comparable with the wind energy famous for its "wide distribution", let alone the traditional energy such as oil and coal.
Fourth, "silicon", the most important raw material for photovoltaic power generation, is also very rich.
China is rich in silicon resources. In the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, East China Sea in Jiangsu, Yanshi in Henan, Shizuishan in Ningxia, Yichang in Hubei, Leshan in Sichuan, Guangyuan in Guangyuan, Zhaotong in Yunnan and other regions, there are giant silicon ores with reserves of tens of millions of tons or even more. At the same time, high-grade silica-containing ores have been found almost all over the country.
Fifth, the application scenarios are very extensive.
It can not only build centralized power stations, but also build distributed small power stations, and even install battery modules on the roof of each household to generate electricity. Solar photovoltaic power generation can be applied in many fields such as aerospace, transportation, agriculture, architecture, military, urban lighting, etc.
Even in deserts and islands far away from people, the lights will be bright because of photovoltaic power generation.
These attributes determine that solar photovoltaic power generation has great development potential. It is the leading role of clean energy.
03. Solve an arithmetic problem
Ten years ago, the cost of photovoltaic power generation equipment and system per 1kW was 30000 to 50000 yuan. With the continuous expansion of the industrial scale, the continuous acceleration of technological iteration and the rapid promotion of intelligent manufacturing, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped by more than 90%.
In the next three or five years, the cost of 1kW of photovoltaic power generation may be reduced to 2000 yuan, 1000 yuan or even lower. Low-cost, clean and pollution-free photovoltaic power generation is being accepted by more and more countries and their residents, and its application is spreading rapidly around the world.
More and more photovoltaic power stations have sprung up, and more and more cheap photovoltaic power has been integrated into the grid.
On May 11, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Issues Related to the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021, proposing that the proportion of the electricity generated by wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the whole society will reach about 11% in 2021, and will increase year by year to ensure that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025; At the same time, multiple guarantee mechanisms such as guaranteed grid connection and market-oriented grid connection will be established. In 2021, the scale of guaranteed grid connection of wind and electricity will not be less than 90 million kW.
With strong technology and manufacturing capacity, low cost and active industrial policy, by 2060,
·How much PV will there be in Chinese society?
·As the country with the largest population in the world and the second largest economic aggregate in the world, as well as the first energy producer and consumer in the world, what proportion of PV in the whole energy system should be when China realizes carbon neutrality by 2060?
·What is the per capita PV installed capacity?
Answering these questions not only sets the direction and goal for China to achieve carbon neutrality, but also affects the development of photovoltaic industry, because it determines how much clean energy will affect our society.
The Revolutionary Strategy for Energy Production and Consumption (2016-2030) proposes that by 2050, non-fossil energy will account for more than half of the national energy system.
However, many opinion leaders in the industry believe that this goal is still too conservative, because the development of the photovoltaic industry is exponential.
First of all, there is no doubt that carbon emissions will aggravate the greenhouse effect. In order to cope with the climate crisis, we need to upgrade the energy structure simultaneously.
Secondly, the new energy technology represented by photovoltaic is also applicable to Moore's law.
After preliminary preparation, the future technological path will also show exponential development. By 2050, China's share of clean energy will far exceed 50%.
According to the target node of carbon neutrality in 2060, China's share of clean energy will reach at least 80%, half of which will be photovoltaic. Under this premise, we might as well do a simple arithmetic problem to calculate how much PV China needs by 2060.
China now consumes about 500 million tons of oil a year, accounting for 18.9% of the total energy consumption. That is to say, if we replace all sources of energy supply with oil, we need at least 2.65 billion tons of oil a year.
Every 100GW of photovoltaic system produces electricity every year, equivalent to the equivalent energy of 50 million tons of oil, so if we replace 2.65 billion tons of oil with photovoltaic now, 5300GW of photovoltaic installed capacity is required (in 2020, China's photovoltaic installed capacity is about 253GW). About 1.4 billion people in the country need at least 3.8kW of PV installed capacity per capita.
Considering that China's society will develop in an all-round way in the next 40 years, the economic scale may double or even more, the modernization level will continue to improve, and the per capita energy consumption will also increase rapidly in the future.
In 2019, the per capita energy consumption of the United States was 3.66 times that of China (in 2019, China consumed about 4.86 billion tons of standard coal, with a population of about 1.4 billion; in 2019, the energy consumption of the United States was 4.163 billion tons of standard coal, with a population of about 328 million). If China's per capita energy consumption in 2060 reaches the level of the United States in 2019, then by 2060, China's per capita photovoltaic installed capacity will be at least 13.9kW.
Assuming that PV will account for 50% of China's energy structure in 2060, the per capita PV installed capacity will be at least 6.95kW in the future.
What is the concept of PV installed capacity of nearly 7kW per capita? Assuming that the total population remains unchanged and each person has 7kW of PV installed capacity, then China will need a total of 9800GW of PV installed capacity. In other words, in addition to the existing installed capacity of about 253GW, we need to add at least 237GW of photovoltaic installed capacity every year in the next 40 years.
The seemingly onerous task will be a huge driving force for the development of China's photovoltaic industry. The PV installed capacity of 7kW per capita and 9800GW in total will profoundly change Chinese society.
In addition to solar energy, wind energy, hydropower and nuclear energy will also be further developed. As a landmark event of this era, clean energy production is taking mankind to the future stage of development.
China plans to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060, which is expected to be achieved 5 to 10 years ahead of schedule with the support of the photovoltaic industry. |
