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| 4680 ultimate battery welcomes the first year! All leading enterprises in the in |
| Release time:2023-02-21 14:01:55| Viewed： |
Tesla said in the document submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that due to the mass production of Semi-electric trucks and the increase of 4680 battery production next year, the capital expenditure in 2024 is expected to increase significantly.
Tesla expects that the company's capital expenditure in 2024 and 2025 will be between US $7 billion and US $9 billion, up from US $6 billion to US $8 billion this year.
In 2023, the mass production of 4680 cylindrical batteries is imminent, and Tesla leads the promotion, and the future market demand is clear.
At present, 4680 large cylindrical batteries are mainly supplied to model Y in special period, but model Y is also supported by 2170 batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. The mass production schedule of 4680 batteries will not affect the output of model Y.
However, the new models such as Cyberrack and Semis planned to be launched in 2023 only use 4680 batteries. Take Cyberrack as an example. If it is launched and delivered in 2023, the annual sales volume is expected to be 90000, and the charged capacity of a single vehicle is 207KWh, the demand for 4680 batteries is close to 20GWh. Therefore, the rapid increase in the production of 4680 large cylinders is still the key to Tesla's sales growth.
According to the demand planning of 46 series large cylindrical batteries of Tesla, BMW and other automobile enterprises, it is estimated that the installed capacity of 46 series large cylindrical batteries will reach 207.8GWh in 2025, and the market share of the installed capacity of global power batteries will reach 14.0%.
The 4680 battery has obvious advantages and is expected to become the mainstream choice of medium and high-end models.
Progress of Tesla 4680 battery plants:
4680 Battery Industry Overview Lithium-ion battery structure is mainly divided into three types: cylindrical, square and soft package.
Comparison of main technical indicators of three types of power batteries:
Since 2008, Tesla has always taken 18650 cylindrical battery as the mainstream product. However, after upgrading the specification to 21700, it is difficult to iterate the product for five years.
Until 2020, after Tesla released the 4680 all-pole ear battery, the product achieved a new breakthrough in terms of specification, performance, cost, safety, service life, etc.
According to the data, the 4680 battery is a new generation of cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm introduced by Tesla. Compared with the 2170 cylindrical battery, which has been widely used before, its energy density is increased by 5 times, its output power is increased by 6 times, its range is increased by 16%, and its cost is reduced by 14%.
Key links of 4680 battery industry chain The technological innovation and large-scale application of 4680 batteries have a great impact on the battery industry chain, focusing on the impact of batteries, positive and negative active materials, electrolytes and structural components.
With the accelerated penetration of 4680, the demand for high nickel surged.
The domestic high nickel barrier is obvious, and the three-yuan lead is always strong. At present, most of the domestic ternary suppliers have the capacity of medium nickel and high voltage ternary, and there are few high nickel ternary suppliers with sufficient capacity and high-quality products. Dangsheng, Rongbai and Bamo and other leading enterprises laid out high nickel technology earlier.
In 21, the top three suppliers of Sanyuan cathode were Rongbai (8%), Bamo (6.2%) and Dangsheng (5.4%). Rongbai has switched its entire system to 8-series and 9-series Sanyuan. Dangsheng has only a small amount of medium-nickel production capacity, most of which are high-nickel production capacity. In 21, Bamo focused on medium-nickel production, and the high-nickel production capacity began to increase gradually in 22 years.
Proportion of global anode shipments in 2021:
4680 is highly matched with silicon carbon, and the faucet is arranged with silicon carbon anode. The 4680 uses high nickel positive electrode and silicon carbon negative electrode materials, which is the battery with the highest mass production energy density at this stage. Since its shell is designed with high-strength nickel steel and cylindrical structure, the 4680 has good compatibility with silicon carbon anode, and it is expected to increase the doping ratio of silicon to 3~10%, while that of square and soft battery is about 3%.
Negative electrode suppliers Betray and Shanshan have supplied silicon carbon negative electrodes in bulk.
4680 has excellent performance, and the demand for new electrolyte is doubled. Tianci is in a leading position in the research and development of new lithium salt LiFSI, and the self-supply proportion of lithium hexafluorophosphate reaches 80%. At present, Tianci has built 6300 tons of LiFSi capacity and 32000 tons of LiPF6 capacity. It is expected that Tianci and New Zebang will further expand the proportion of global electrolyte shipments by virtue of their technical and cost advantages. It is expected that Tianci and New Zebang will account for 25% and 15% of global electrolyte shipments respectively in 2022.
Sorting of 4680 battery layout enterprises
At present, driven by Tesla, Panasonic, LG New Energy, Samsung SDI, Vision Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Ningde Times have all deployed 4680 batteries.
Tesla is speeding up the mass production of its 4680 battery. The 1 millionth 4680 battery has been successfully offline, and the yield has increased from 27% at the beginning to 90%. The Model Y model produced and delivered at its Austin, Texas, USA, has used its own 4680 battery.
Panasonic will mass-produce 4680 batteries at the factory in Wakayama, Japan, in March 2023 at the earliest, and supply them to Tesla in bulk.
LG New Energy will invest 582 billion won in the Ochang plant in South Korea and build a new 4680 cylindrical battery production line, which will be put into production in the second half of 2023, with an annual capacity of 9GWh.
Vision Power will provide 46 series large cylindrical batteries for the new generation of BMW models from 2026, and will build a new zero-carbon battery factory in South Carolina to provide products for BMW.
In August 2022, the pilot line of Yiwei Lithium's first system product carrying 46 series of large cylindrical batteries was successfully launched. Yiwei Lithium has completed the strategic layout of large cylindrical batteries, including 4680 and 4695 models. |
