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| Danger and opportunity of energy storage on the user side: two major tests " |
| Release time:2023-02-27 09:49:42| Viewed： |
In 2023, it is called the first year of the global energy storage industry by many institutions. Compared with the large energy storage orders of hundreds of megawatts, another lightweight energy storage market is quietly sprouting - user-side energy storage.
The so-called user side emphasizes the use scenario of energy storage. In addition to the energy storage on the user side, there are also more familiar energy storage on the power supply side and the power grid side. Due to different use scenarios, they also have great differences in power configuration and performance requirements.
Liu Yong, Secretary-General of the Energy Storage Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, told the First Financial reporter that industrial and commercial owners and household users are the two core customer groups of energy storage on the user side, and their main purpose of using energy storage is to play the role of power quality, emergency backup, time-of-use electricity price management, capacity costs and other functions. In contrast, the power supply side mainly deals with new energy absorption, smooth output and frequency modulation; The power grid side is mainly to solve the auxiliary service of peak shaving and frequency modulation, alleviate line congestion, standby power supply and black start.
In 2022, the scale of China's energy storage grid connection will reach 7.76GW/16.43GWh, but from the perspective of application field distribution, the energy storage on the user side will only account for 10% of the total grid connection. Therefore, in the past impression of many people, energy storage must be a "big project" with tens of millions of investment, but little is known about user-side energy storage that is closely related to their own production and life. In the view of many market participants, this situation will be improved as the difference between peak and valley electricity prices increases and policy support increases.
It is worth noting that the user-side energy storage market in the early stage of development still faces two major tests of economy and security. How to give users and investors considerable benefits, and how to ensure the hardware security and data security of the product are the problems that have to be faced before the user-side energy storage becomes more popular.
The difference between peak and valley prices of electricity has widened, and the "hot and cold" markets in different regions are uneven
When the electricity price is low, charge the energy storage system; When the electricity price is high, discharge the energy storage system. In this way, users can use the difference between peak and valley electricity prices to carry out arbitrage. Users have reduced the cost of electricity consumption, and the power grid has also reduced the pressure of real-time power balance, which is the basic logic of energy storage on the user side that is highly recommended by local markets and policies.
Liu Jialu, deputy chief engineer of Kelu Electronics, told the First Finance and Economics that the "wind" of energy storage has been blowing for several years, but there has been a dilemma of "crowding and not crowding" because of the small difference between peak and valley electricity prices. Since last year, the signals of marketization of industrial and commercial electricity prices have become more clear, which has gradually improved the situation. However, there are still great differences in the difficulty coefficient of promoting user-side energy storage in different regions. For example, user-side energy storage in Zhejiang, Guangdong and southern Jiangsu is relatively easy to promote, while it is difficult to promote in most other provinces, especially in the western region. "In the final analysis, this phenomenon is due to the difference of peak and valley electricity prices in different regions."
By users, Liu Jialu mainly refers to industrial and commercial users. This is because under the current domestic electricity price policy, most household users do not have peak-valley price differences. Therefore, the current domestic market is generally optimistic about user-side energy storage with industry and commerce as the main body.
In January this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Further Improving the Power Purchase Agency of Power Grid Enterprises, encouraging and supporting industrial and commercial users of 10kV and above to directly participate in the power market, and gradually reducing the scope of power purchase agency users. It is widely believed in the industry that this will significantly benefit industrial and commercial energy storage and power consumption in the park. The energy storage system can be configured to reduce the cost of power consumption by taking advantage of the peak-valley price difference.
In fact, the peak-valley price difference of power grids across the country has obviously increased in the past half year. According to the research of Tianfeng Securities, the peak-valley price difference of electricity in provinces and cities across the country has risen from 6 in July last year to 18 in January this year. At the same time, the peak-to-valley ratio of time-of-use electricity prices in various regions has also continued to increase, for example, Henan increased from 0.72 yuan/kwh last year to 1.021 yuan/kwh in January this year.
According to the calculation of the above institutions, the LCOE (cost of levelized kilowatt-hour electricity) of energy storage once a day is about 0.63 yuan/kwh. When the peak-valley electricity price difference is greater than the energy storage LCOE, the industrial and commercial energy storage investment is economic. This means that under the trend of increasing peak-valley price difference, more and more industrial and commercial energy storage in provinces across the country has become economic.
What is more gratifying to investors is that at present, some provinces have set up two peak periods through time-of-use electricity prices, and there is a difference between the two peak periods. Therefore, the energy storage can be charged in the valley or at ordinary times, and discharged in the two peak periods, so as to achieve "two charging and two discharging" every day, significantly improve the utilization rate of the energy storage system, and shorten the return period to 6 years.
"The consumer-side energy storage revenue model in the ideal state is very considerable, but the actual situation we learned in the first-line research is more complex." Liu Jialu told reporters, first of all, this requires that the power consumption curve of industrial and commercial users and the load curve of the grid tend to be consistent. That is to say, in the peak electricity price period of the power grid, it is the time when the enterprise uses the largest amount of electricity, which is suitable for energy storage. On the contrary, if the power consumption of the enterprise itself is not large during the peak electricity price period, then the income is not obvious.
Secondly, most domestic industrial and commercial electricity prices adopt two-part electricity prices, that is, the electricity price is determined by combining the basic electricity price corresponding to the capacity and the electricity price corresponding to the electricity consumption. If the 24-hour power consumption curve of an enterprise is relatively stable, two phenomena may occur during the valley price period. One is that the enterprise's transformers are used on the load required by the enterprise's own production, and there is no excess capacity to charge the energy storage system; The second is that even if there is excess capacity, it may also increase the amount of electricity demand paid by enterprises. The maximum amount of electricity demand in a fixed period of time increases because of the addition of energy storage.
In addition, Liu Jialu also said that some enterprises were too optimistic about the service life of the energy storage system. At present, the charge-discharge cycle life of lithium energy storage batteries on the market is generally about 7000 to 8000 times, but its corresponding calendar life cannot be roughly converted to 20 years. This is because taking into account the high economic efficiency of "two charging and two releasing" every day, if converted by this, the calendar life is generally not more than 10 years. Some people in the industry also suggested that if the battery is replaced separately after 10 years, the service life can be extended at a lower cost. However, Liu Jialu believed that the current battery technology update is too fast, and it is difficult to ensure the uniformity of specifications and other aspects at that time, and probably the rate can not be fully matched, so it is not feasible to replace the battery after 10 years.
"The service life of the energy storage system is usually only about 10 years, while the return period is about 6 to 8 years, which is obviously not a cost-effective business. Therefore, we generally think that it is better to compress the return period to less than 5 years. This puts forward higher requirements for users' power load, demand willingness and other aspects." Liu Jialu said.
Industrial and commercial owners still have concerns about whether it is economic and safe
For many users and investors who have great enthusiasm for industrial and commercial energy storage, understanding and accepting the uncertainties in this process is the first step.
Liu Jialu told reporters that the battery attenuation and the loss of system efficiency may become negative factors affecting the enterprise's income. For example, only 0.85 kilowatt-hours of electricity can be released when charging once, because the energy storage system itself consumes electricity, which many enterprises intentionally or unintentionally ignore when calculating the revenue model to users. The positive factor may be that the market generally expects that the peak-valley price difference will continue to increase in the next few years.
"From the user side, China's electric energy substitution rate will be further improved, including the access of electric vehicles, which shows that there is room for growth in electricity consumption. From the power side, the new energy represented by wind and rain has the characteristics of intermittent and volatile, and the large-scale access of new energy will bring greater pressure to the grid. Therefore, it is the trend to adjust the balance between power supply and demand through the peak-valley price difference. However, it is also difficult to predict this price difference How much more will it expand? " Liu Jialu said.
Liu Yong, Secretary-General of the Energy Storage Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, told the First Finance and Economics reporter that in 2020, among the 17 provinces in the country that implement peak-valley time-of-use electricity prices, ordinary industrial and large industrial users can only break even when installing energy storage in Beijing. With the economic improvement of energy storage technology, it is estimated that 10 provinces will be able to achieve profits in 2025 based on the latest implemented catalog electricity prices of each province in 2022.
In addition, domestic user-side energy storage is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang and other regions with high peak-valley price difference and developed industry and commerce. However, in the summer of the last two years, in the load center areas of East China and South China, affected by the peak season and the orderly use of electricity in summer, some industrial and commercial users experienced power shortage in summer. At the same time, driven by the peak-valley electricity price policy and the reduction of the cost of energy storage system, the demand of industrial and commercial users to deploy energy storage is gradually emerging.
Liu Jialu said that using peak and valley arbitrage and acting as standby power supply are the two main purposes for industrial and commercial owners to provide energy storage. In fact, these two motives may drive users to place orders, or may not be enough to impress users. Among them, cost performance is an important measurement factor.
He calculated an account for the reporter: taking the 1mwh industrial and commercial energy storage scale as an example, the input cost is about 2 million yuan, assuming that the annual income is about 400000 yuan, it takes five to six years to pay back the cost. However, this income belongs to the joint ownership of the investor and the industrial and commercial owners, and is usually shared. If 10% to 20% of the income is distributed to industrial and commercial owners, that is, 40000 to 80000 yuan per year. For an industrial and commercial enterprise equipped with energy storage capacity of 1mwh, its annual operating income is usually in the hundreds of millions. Compared with its meager income, it is conceivable that the enterprise's willingness to arbitrage through energy storage is not strong.
"I visited about 100 industrial and commercial enterprises in the first half of last year, of which 6 to 7 large industrial users can reach an agreement, which has been a good achievement. Among the enterprises that have successfully signed the agreement, there are enterprises in the automobile, electrical, cement and other industries, and they are more for the purpose of responding to the dual-carbon goal of energy conservation." Liu Jialu said, in addition, from the perspective of cost, compared with the cost of diesel generators of 3 to 4 yuan per kilowatt hour, The cost of electrochemical energy storage can be controlled within 1 yuan.
In addition to economic factors, safety is the main concern of industrial and commercial enterprises.
"No matter on the user side, power supply side or grid side, safety is always the first demand for energy storage. Without safety, all benefits are lost. Safety is the most important evaluation index of energy storage system and the premise to obtain benefits. Safety is not only the safety of people and property, but also the safety of grid connection, operation and maintenance, and income security." Li Jinhu, general manager of Sungrow Power Solutions Center, stressed to reporters.
At present, lithium batteries are mostly used in domestic user-side energy storage projects, and thermal runaway is the most serious safety accident of lithium batteries. It refers to a large amount of heat generated by the battery in a short time due to internal short circuit or external short circuit, which causes the reaction and decomposition of positive and negative active substances and electrolyte, and generates a large amount of heat and combustible gas, resulting in a fire or explosion of the battery. However, energy storage accidents and disasters caused by out-of-control lithium electric heating at home and abroad have occurred from time to time, exacerbating users' distrust of the configuration of energy storage at the industrial and commercial sides.
At the same time, the safety of electricity data is also a factor that enterprises need to measure. When enterprises customize the energy storage system for customers, they should first investigate the power consumption curve and power consumption of enterprises. If this information is obtained by competitors, the actual output of enterprises can be calculated, which may cause commercial losses.
"Because we have accumulated good experience and reputation in the industry for a long time, and have maintained zero accident rate for many years, so the trust of users is relatively high. However, for new enterprises entering the industry, how to build trust in safety may be a topic that needs to be broken through. This is why, although lithium battery manufacturing technology has been relatively popular, we believe that barriers in the industry still exist and are not so It's easy to conquer. " Liu Jialu said.
Where is the core competitiveness of enterprises
Many industry insiders believe that compared with the energy-storage on the power supply side and the power grid side with strong policy orientation, whether the energy-storage on the user side breaks out mainly depends on a number of market-oriented factors.
"Energy storage is the only way for the development of new energy and the necessary link to build a new power system. However, unlike the large infrastructure of ground power stations, the user-side energy storage is very sensitive to the economy, which is also one of the bottlenecks in the development of domestic user-side energy storage in the past. Now, the gap between peak and valley prices has widened, the profit model of energy storage has become increasingly clear, and the investment return cycle in many provinces has been continuously shortened. In addition, the trial operation of electricity spot market transactions and carbon emissions The promotion of dual control has significantly improved the enthusiasm of industrial, commercial and household construction for energy storage. " Li Jinhu told the reporter of China First Finance.
For many leading companies in the energy storage industry, the dawn of the market has dawned. Take Sungrow Power as an example. In 2021, Sungrow Power's energy storage system will integrate global shipments of 3GWh, ranking first among Chinese enterprises in terms of shipments, and the trend of high growth throughout 2022 will continue. Up to now, solar power storage products have entered more than 150 countries and regions around the world.
Pan Duozhao, CEO of Lejia Energy, told the First Financial reporter that in the inherent concept of many people, energy storage is a circuit to B, but in fact, user-side energy storage is a field similar to C. The industrial and commercial owners should determine whether to adopt energy storage as a purely market-oriented behavior, which needs to be combined with the amount of benefits brought by the energy storage system, as well as the stability and sustainability of the benefits.
"The capabilities required by enterprises that do user-side energy storage are very different from those of traditional energy storage cell factories and battery pack (assembly) factories. They may be able to serve several major construction groups, but they cannot directly serve industrial and commercial users. Because the distribution of industrial and commercial users is too scattered and there are personalized needs differences, this puts forward high requirements for the integration of software and hardware, and intelligent operation and maintenance service capabilities of enterprises." Pan Duozhao said.
Pan Duozhao said that in the past, about 30% of user-side energy storage in the market was not put into operation as expected. There are three main reasons for this. First, the analysis of power consumption characteristics on the user side is insufficient or changes, resulting in the inconsistency between the installed feature setting function and the actual power consumption; Second, the quality and technical level of operation and maintenance of equipment or equipment after operation are not high; Third, some new energy+energy storage systems, as auxiliary systems, lack linkage control and revenue optimization strategy functions, resulting in failure to meet the expected rate of return.
In terms of economy, Pan Duozhao said that at present, through the cost control of self-operated hardware, it can shorten the recovery period to one year, and through the early warning algorithm and control of extended life, the calendar life can also reach about 15 years. In this way, the yield of the product is guaranteed. In terms of security, his strategy is to develop a high-precision security algorithm model through the accumulation of data in the field of electric vehicles. As for the problem that users are worried about data leakage, his thinking is still intelligent: after the energy storage system is officially put into operation, enterprises can make privatization deployment according to their own production conditions based on intelligent software to reduce the risk of data leakage.
Pan Duozhao said that taking the current industrial and commercial energy storage in Zhejiang as an example, the reason why the market has been cultivated so well is that the local peak-valley electricity price difference is attractive enough, and on the other hand, it is also inseparable from the encouragement and subsidy policies of the district and county governments. Since most industrial and commercial owners have a half-understanding of user-side energy storage, the promotion and encouragement of the policy will bring them more stable confidence. In this process, the supervision of relevant departments and industry norms should also be established as soon as possible, and some companies with insufficient capacity, poor quality and high safety risks will be excluded. Otherwise, for the budding user-side energy storage, it will also face a greater crisis of trust.
Li Jinhu also stressed that since 2015, the composite growth rate of the energy storage industry has been very high every year, and the vigorous development of the industry has attracted many enterprises to join across the border. However, energy storage is a high-tech barrier industry, which requires long-term and cross-domain knowledge and technology precipitation, and requires deep integration of power electronics, electrochemistry, and grid support technologies. The integration of energy storage system is not a simple addition. Non-professional integration and rough patching will bring serious safety problems, and the product quality and performance can not be guaranteed.
Liu Yong believes that the current user-side energy storage market needs more participation of enterprises with strong system integration capabilities. Technically, it needs to integrate the combination of optical storage technology, and have sufficient knowledge accumulation and high-quality and efficient production and manufacturing capabilities for technologies such as electrochemistry, power electronics, intelligence and digitalization, and power grid dispatching. In addition, enterprises need to have rich project experience and perfect and convenient system installation service support capabilities to ensure safe and stable operation of the user-side energy storage project throughout its life cycle.
At the same time, Liu Yong suggested that users should be actively encouraged to build user-side energy storage systems in areas with high power supply pressure and large peak-valley difference, and special subsidy policies could be issued in areas with conditions. Research and develop a dynamic adjustment peak-valley time-of-use electricity price mechanism, give full play to the advantages of the rapid construction and flexible configuration of electrochemical energy storage power stations, and play an important role in solving the problem of "orderly electricity consumption in peak season in summer" during the peak period of summer electricity consumption. At the same time, he also suggested to study and propose fiscal, financial, tax relief and other policies to support the development of energy storage, increase the support of green bonds and green credit for energy storage projects, and include new energy storage projects in the scope of pilot support for infrastructure real estate investment trusts (REITs). |
