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From the difficulty of grid connection, the serious waste of wind and light, to the current low price of electricity entering the market, the problems faced by new energy power generation have entered a new stage. Under the situation of irreversible trend, how can new energy control income risk?

01 Accurate prediction of volume and price: iron casting needs to be hard

At present, the domestic electricity market reform is mainly based on the spot market+medium and long-term transactions (annual and monthly transactions). As the "ballast stone" of the electricity market, the medium and long term transactions for new energy stations usually also play a "risk aversion" function, which can roughly guarantee 50% to 90% of the income. In practice, however, there are many cases where "ballast stone" has become "capsized stone" due to too many medium and long term problems.

"It requires the combination of multiple trading varieties, multiple risk preference combinations, and different trading strategies... to find the best combination is the core to deal with the income risk." Zheng Ying, general manager of Vision Smart Energy Solutions, told the reporter of Energy magazine, "It is unrealistic to guarantee the income of a single trading variety only by medium and long term or cash."

In the market where thermal power is the absolute main power source or there is no spot transaction, the price is mainly based on the pricing of thermal power. In this case, the new energy is in a "passive follow", and the risks and benefits are relatively controllable.

When the spot market is opened and the proportion of new energy is greatly increased, the complexity of the market is greatly increased, which is not conducive to new energy power generation.

Taking PV as an example, because the sunshine time is basically fixed, the PV power generation curve is basically "from sunrise to sunset, and at noon the strongest". So the famous "duck curve" appeared.

The power generation output time of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is abnormally concentrated, leading to the large power generation period gathering in the spot low price period, so the new energy can only get the lowest price when entering the market, and the income pressure increases sharply.

From the practical results of power market reform at home and abroad, the time scale of the more mature power trading market is more subdivided (such as ten-day trading, intra-week trading, multi-day trading, etc.), and also includes the more long-term power futures market.

The more types of transactions, the more options for new energy power generation, and the more options for risk hedging. But in the same way, the requirements for the accuracy of new energy generation forecast have also been greatly improved.

Under the traditional mode, the new energy generation forecast is mainly used to meet the grid dispatching and has a single function. Under the system of "guaranteed acquisition of new energy power generation", the impact of forecast accuracy on earnings is not very obvious.

At the stage of marketization, the accuracy of prediction is often directly related to income. For example, a new energy station predicts that it will generate electricity during the period of high market price and sell electricity in advance; However, when the electricity cannot be delivered, we can only buy high-priced electricity from the market to fulfill the contract. In the context of increasingly complex trading varieties and continuous refinement of trading time scales, accurate forecasting is related to the profit and loss of each new energy transaction.

"On the one hand, it is necessary to accurately predict the new energy output curve, and on the other hand, it is also necessary to combine the longer period data and off-site data to predict the price. It is not only necessary to consider the accuracy of the prediction, but also the size of the probability of occurrence." Zheng Ying told the Energy magazine, "Improving the prediction accuracy and adopting appropriate trading strategies are the magic weapons of new energy in the market."

Accurate new energy power generation forecast can help enterprises to more accurately report the volume and price, and reduce the two detailed assessment. This is the conventional understanding of new energy power generation forecast. Combined with accurate price forecast, it can not only reduce the "electricity abandonment" of new energy under market conditions, but also further enlarge the income.

"There are many factors that affect price changes, such as macro policy, changes in location conditions, occurrence of extreme weather, changes in coal prices, local load adjustment... We combine these data into supply and demand, price forecasting and trading strategies, so that new energy can not only know when and how much electricity is generated, but also clearly know how much revenue is generated by the electricity generated," Zheng Ying said.

The combination of on-site data and off-site data, the combination of "sky" meteorological data and "ground" station/equipment operation data, the combination of internal and external, and the integration of heaven and earth, is a major feature of the reporter in the practice of long-range intelligent power prediction.

It is understood that Vision Intelligence's power forecasting product integrates the global 10+meteorological models, with 100 built-in power forecasting models to provide targeted short, medium and long term power forecasting and electricity forecasting, and its full-time and full-scene forecasting can support the risk control decision of spot/long-term/trans-provincial power trading.

02 Man-machine combination to change the trading method

Although the new energy generation forecast has achieved breakthrough progress, in the spot market, the transaction scale is calculated in minutes, and the response of the auxiliary service market has reached the second level, and the complexity of the new energy participation in the power market has increased geometrically.

There is a huge amount of information in the mature trading market, and the spot price is also changing in real time. It is difficult for traders of new energy enterprises to independently collect, analyze and judge these information and compare different trading strategies.

The effective combination of man and machine is undoubtedly the inevitable trend of new energy power generation in the tide of marketization. With the participation of regulated power sources such as energy storage and the deepening of power system complexity, this trend of automatic and intelligent trading will become more obvious.

Not long ago, China Electricity Union released the "Research Report on the Operation of New Energy Distribution and Storage", which mentioned that the frequency, equivalent utilization coefficient and utilization rate of new energy distribution and storage are lower than that of thermal power plant distribution and storage, power grid storage and user storage, and the equivalent utilization coefficient of new energy distribution and storage is only 6.1%.